Mostrar el registro sencillo del ítem

A Critical Evaluation of Post-Normal Science's role in Climate Change Modelling and Political Decision-Making

A Critical Evaluation of Post-Normal Science's role in Climate Change Modelling and Political Decision-Making;
A Critical Evaluation of Post-Normal Science's role in Climate Change Modelling and Political Decision-Making

dc.creatorWhiting, Kai
dc.creatorCarmona, Luis Gabriel
dc.date2016-03-05
dc.date.accessioned2020-08-21T20:40:13Z
dc.date.available2020-08-21T20:40:13Z
dc.identifierhttps://revistas.unbosque.edu.co/index.php/RevTec/article/view/1295
dc.identifier10.18270/rt.v13i1.1295
dc.identifier.urihttp://test.repositoriodigital.com:8080/handle/123456789/10700
dc.descriptionEarth System Modelling is a modern approach for studying the complexity of the world and has become integral to the environmental and climate change discourse. It has enabled the possibility of research into areas previously unreachable and has led to the discovery of some of the most complex phenomena on the planet such as Chaos Theory. The exponential growth of computer capabilities has led to an impressive advance in the recognition of complexity and uncertainty. It has also opened up the path for a new scientific paradigm, post normal science. Decisions increasingly have to be made within this framework. Incomplete or poorly understood information provided by models is, despite modelling uncertainties, increasingly dictating the frontiers and interface of science and politics. Modelling, like any tool, has its advantages and disadvantages. This paper critically evaluates, through a comprehensive literature review, some of the benefits, limitations and controversies that surround models and questions their utilisation in the scientific quest for “truth” within the climate change debate. It also looks into the future of climate modelling and post normal science based decision making for a sustainable world.en-US
dc.descriptionEarth System Modelling is a modern approach for studying the complexity of the world and has become integral to the environmental and climate change discourse. It has enabled the possibility of research into areas previously unreachable and has led to the discovery of some of the most complex phenomena on the planet such as Chaos Theory. The exponential growth of computer capabilities has led to an impressive advance in the recognition of complexity and uncertainty. It has also opened up the path for a new scientific paradigm, post normal science. Decisions increasingly have to be made within this framework. Incomplete or poorly understood information provided by models is, despite modelling uncertainties, increasingly dictating the frontiers and interface of science and politics. Modelling, like any tool, has its advantages and disadvantages. This paper critically evaluates, through a comprehensive literature review, some of the benefits, limitations and controversies that surround models and questions their utilisation in the scientific quest for “truth” within the climate change debate. It also looks into the future of climate modelling and post normal science based decision making for a sustainable world.es-AR
dc.descriptionEarth System Modelling is a modern approach for studying the complexity of the world and has become integral to the environmental and climate change discourse. It has enabled the possibility of research into areas previously unreachable and has led to the discovery of some of the most complex phenomena on the planet such as Chaos Theory. The exponential growth of computer capabilities has led to an impressive advance in the recognition of complexity and uncertainty. It has also opened up the path for a new scientific paradigm, post normal science. Decisions increasingly have to be made within this framework. Incomplete or poorly understood information provided by models is, despite modelling uncertainties, increasingly dictating the frontiers and interface of science and politics. Modelling, like any tool, has its advantages and disadvantages. This paper critically evaluates, through a comprehensive literature review, some of the benefits, limitations and controversies that surround models and questions their utilisation in the scientific quest for “truth” within the climate change debate. It also looks into the future of climate modelling and post normal science based decision making for a sustainable world.es-ES
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.languagespa
dc.publisherUniversidad El Bosquees-ES
dc.relationhttps://revistas.unbosque.edu.co/index.php/RevTec/article/view/1295/903
dc.relation/*ref*/Funtowicz, S and Ravetz, J (2008) Post-Normal Science International Society for Ecological Economics, Encyclopaedia of the Earth http://www.eoearth.org/article/Post-Normal_Science
dc.relation/*ref*/Deblonde, M, Barriat, VA and Warrant, F (2005) SPIRE – Science and Precaution in Interactive Risk Evaluation Belgian Science Policy http://www.belspo.be/belspo/organisation/publ/pub_ostc/OA/rOA01_en.pdf
dc.relation/*ref*/Neugebauer, H and Simmer, C (2003) Dynamics of multiscale earth systems Springer
dc.relation/*ref*/Alcamo, J, Floerke, M, Schaldach, R and Weiss, M (2008) Earth Systems Modelling: New Insights into Revista de Tecnología ¦ Journal of Technology ¦ Volumen 13 ¦ Número 1 ¦ Págs. 28-38 ¦ 35 A Critical Evaluation of Post-Normal Science's role in Climate Change Modelling and Political Decision-Making the Future of Water, Land and their Interactions Global Change NewsLetter No. 71 May 2008
dc.relation/*ref*/Oldfield, F (2005) Environmental Change: Key Issues and Alternative Perspectives Cambridge University Press
dc.relation/*ref*/Heavens, N. G., Ward, D. S. & Natalie, M. M. (2013) Studying and Projecting Climate Change with Earth System Models. Nature Education Knowledge 4(5):4
dc.relation/*ref*/Rollinson, H (2007) Early Earth systems: a geochemical approach Wiley-Blackwell
dc.relation/*ref*/Leffelaar, P (1998) On systems analysis and simulation of ecological processes: with examples in CSMP, FST, and FORTRAN Springer
dc.relation/*ref*/Swinback, R, Shutiaev, P and Lahoz, W (2003) Data assimilation for the earth system Springer
dc.relation/*ref*/Frigg, R Hartmann,S and Imbert,C (2009). Special Issue Models and Simulation. Synthese, 169.
dc.relation/*ref*/Fox Keller, E.(2003) Models, simulation and ‘computerexperiments’ [Within] Radder H (Ed.), The Philosophy of Scientific Experimentation p 198–215 Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh UniversityPress
dc.relation/*ref*/Johnson, A (2006).The Shape of Molecules to Come [Within] Lenhard, J et al G. Simulation: pragmatic construction of reality. Sociology oft he sciences yearbook 25 Springer p 25–39.
dc.relation/*ref*/Kiehl, J and Ramanathan, V (2006) Frontiers of climate modelling Cambridge University Press
dc.relation/*ref*/Dahan , A. (2007). Les Modeles du futur .Changement Climatique et scenarios economique: enjeux scientifique et politiques. La Decouverte. [Within] Heymann, M (2010) Understanding and Misunderstanding Computer Simulation: The Case of Atmospheric and Climate Science- An Introduction Studies in History and Philosophy in Modern Physics Volume 41, Issue 3, p 193-200
dc.relation/*ref*/Macleod, C (2010) What Can we Learn from Systems Based Approaches: From Systems Biology to Earth System Science International Environmental Modelling and Software Society 2010 International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software: Modelling for Environment’s Sake
dc.relation/*ref*/O’Neil, A and Steenman-Clark, L (2002) The Computational Challenges of Earth-System Science Philosophical Transaction of the Royal Society 360 p 1267-1275
dc.relation/*ref*/Schellnhuber, H (1999) Earth System Analysis and the Second Copernican Revolution Nature Vol 402
dc.relation/*ref*/Thompson, R and Perry (1997) Applied Climatology: Principles and Practice Routledge
dc.relation/*ref*/Schoeberl, M, Raymond, C Rood, R and Hildebrand, P (2003) The Earth System Model NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory http://esto.nasa.gov/conferences/igarss03/papers/MO091340_Schoeberl_ESM.pdf
dc.relation/*ref*/Lenton, T (2002) Testing Gaia: The Effect of Life on Earth’s Habitability and Regulation Kluwer Academic Publishers
dc.relation/*ref*/Watson, A and Lovelock, J (1983) Biological Homeostasis of the Global Environment: The Parable of Daisyworld Tellus 35B p 284-289
dc.relation/*ref*/Lovelock, J (2000) Gaia: a new look at life on earth Oxford University Press
dc.relation/*ref*/Fletcher, C amd Miller, C (2006) Operationalizing Resilence in Australian and New Zealan Agroecosystems http://www.isssbrasil.usp.br/pdfs/2006-355.pdf
dc.relation/*ref*/Van der Sluijs, P (1998) Anchoring Amid Uncertainty On the Management of Uncertainties in Risk Assessment of Anthropogenic Climate Change Social Studies of Science Vol 28, 2 p 291-323
dc.relation/*ref*/USNRC – United States National Research Council (U.S.). (1993) Committee on Status and Research Objectives in the Solid-Earth Sciences Solid-earth sciences and society: a critical assessment National Academies Press
dc.relation/*ref*/Gallopin, C (2004) What Kind of System of Science (and Technology) is Needed to Support the Quest for Sustainable Development? [Within] Schellnhuber Earth system analysis for sustainability MIT Press
dc.relation/*ref*/Beerling, D (2007) The Emerald Planet: How Plants Changed Earth’s History Oxford University Press
dc.relation/*ref*/Wainwright, J and Mulligan, M (2004) Environmental modelling: finding simplicity in complexity John Wiley and Sons
dc.relation/*ref*/Heymann, M (2010) Understanding and Misunderstanding Computer Simulation: The Case of Atmospheric and Climate Science- An Introduction Studies in History and Philosophy in Modern Physics Volume 41, Issue 3, p 193-200
dc.relation/*ref*/Klemes, V (1997) Of carts and horses in hydrological modeling. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 1: 43-49
dc.relation/*ref*/Washington, W, Buja, L and Craig, A (2009) The Computational Future for Climate and Earth System Models: on the Path to Petaflop and Beyond Philosophical Transaction of the Royal Society 367 p 833-846
dc.relation/*ref*/Bhattacharyya, S, Cameron-Smith, P and Bergmann, D (2010) Atmospheric Impact of Large Methane Emissions and the Gulf Oil Spill NASA/ Smithsonian
dc.relation/*ref*/Stute, M Clement, A and Lohmann, G (2001) Global Climate Models: Past, Present and Future Procedures of the National Academy of Science, USA 98 (19) p 10529-10530
dc.relation/*ref*/Hemingway, K., Cutts, and . Pérez-Dominguez, R (2008) Managed Realignment in the Humber Estuary, UK. Institute of Estuarine & Coastal Studies (IECS), University of Hull, UK. Report produced as part of the European Interreg IIIB HARBASINS project
dc.relation/*ref*/Hollingsworth, A, Uppala, S, Klinker, E et al (2005) The Transformation of Earth-System Observations innto Information of Socio-Economic Value in GEOSS Quaterly Journal of the Royal Meterological Society 131 (613) p 3493-3512
dc.relation/*ref*/Mackinnon, I (2008) Indonesia launches tsunami warning system The Guardian 11 Nov 2008 http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/nov/11/indonesia- tsunami-warning-system
dc.relation/*ref*/Murtugudde, R (2009) Regional Earth System Prediction: A Decision-Making Tool for Sustainability? In Press
dc.relation/*ref*/Clark, W and Holliday, L (2006) Linking Knowledge with Action for Sustainable Development: The Role of Program Management - Summary of a Workshop National Academies Press
dc.relation/*ref*/Mitchell R, Romero, P (2003) Institutions, science, and technology in the transition to sustainability. [Within] Earth System Analysis for Sustainability. Edited by Schellnhuber HJ, Crutzen PJ,Clark WC, Claussen M, Held H. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press p :387-408.
dc.relation/*ref*/Saloranta, T (2001) Post-Normal Science and the Global Climate Change Issue Climatic Change 50: p 395–404
dc.relation/*ref*/Glover, L (2010) Postmodern Climate Change Routledge p 135
dc.relation/*ref*/Friedrichs, J (2011) ‘Peak energy and climate change: the double bind of post‐normal science’, Futures 43 (4): 469‐477
dc.relation/*ref*/Claussen, M (2001) Earth System Models Institut für Meteorologie, FU-Berlin http://www.mpimet.mpg. de/fileadmin/staff/claussenmartin/publications/claussen_esm_understanding_spring_01.pdf
dc.relation/*ref*/Cox, P and Nakicenovic, N (2004) Assesing and Simulating the Altered Functioning of the Earth System and the Anthropocene [Within] Schellnhuber Earth system analysis for sustainability MIT Press
dc.relation/*ref*/Stahl, B (2008) Information systems: critical perspectives Taylor & Francis
dc.relation/*ref*/Firor, J (1998) ‘Human Motives Sometimes Mar Models’, Boulder Daily Camera (25 October): 12F [Wthin] Lahsen, M (2005) Seductive Simulations? Uncertainty Distribution Around Climate Models Social Studies of Science 35: 895
dc.relation/*ref*/Edwards, P (1996) Global Comprehensive Models in Politics and Policymaking Climate Change32 (2) P 149-61
dc.relation/*ref*/Lanzerotti (1999) Position Statement Adopted on Climate Change and Greenhouse Gases AGU Committee on Public Affairs http://www.agu.org/sci_soc/policy/lanzer.html [Accessed December 2007]
dc.relation/*ref*/DeWeese, T (2006) Fanatics, heretics and the truth about Global Warming MitchNews 30/05/06 http://www.michnews.com/cgi-bin/artman/exec/view. cgi/416/12914 [Accessed December 2007]
dc.relation/*ref*/Lahsen, M (2005) Seductive Simulations? Uncertainty Distribution round Climate Models Social Studies of Science 35: 895
dc.relation/*ref*/Steffen, W, Bolin, B, Cox, P, Crutzen, P et al (2004) Group Report: Earth System Dynamics in the Anthropocene p313-340 [Within] Schellnhuber Earth system analysis for sustainability MIT Press
dc.relation/*ref*/Lomborg, B (2001) The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World Cambridge University Press
dc.relation/*ref*/NASA- NASA Advisory Council. Earth System Sciences Committee, United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (1988) Earth system science: a closer view National Academies
dc.relation/*ref*/Lupo, A (2007) The Complexity of Atmospheric Modelling Ice Cap http://icecap.us/images/ uploads/complexityatmosmodel2.pdf
dc.relation/*ref*/Spencer, R (2010) Climate Confusion: How Global Warming Hysteria Leads to Bad Science, Pandering Politicians and Misguided Policies That Hurt the Poor Encounter Books
dc.relation/*ref*/Houghton et al (2001) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis Houghton et al p 99-181 Cambridge University Press http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/edu/dees/V1003/readings/IPCC%202001%20TAR/WG1_TAR-FRONT.pdf
dc.relation/*ref*/Reichter, T and Kim, J (2008) How Well do Coupled Models Simulate Today’s Climate? Bulletin of Atmospheric Metrological Society 89 p 303-311
dc.relation/*ref*/Edwards, P (2001) ‘Representing the Global Atmosphere: Computer Models, Data, and Knowledge About Climate Change’,[Within] Miller , C and. Edwards, P (eds), Changing the Atmosphere: Expert Knowledge and Environmental Governance (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press): 31–65.
dc.relation/*ref*/Guillemot, H (2010) Connections Between Simulations and Observation in Climate Computer Modelling. Scientists’ Practices and Bottom-Up Epistemology Lessons An Introduction Studies in History and Philosophy in Modern Physics Volume 41, Issue 3 p 242-252
dc.relation/*ref*/Carter, R .M (2007) The Myth of Dangerous Human- Caused Climate Change.Paper for: The AUS/IMM New Leaders Conference http://icecap.us/images/uploads/200705-03AusIMMcorrected.pdf [Accessed December 2007]
dc.relation/*ref*/Claussen, Mysak, L, Weaver, A, Crucifix, M, Fichefet, T et al (2002) Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity: Closing the Gap in the Spectrum of Climate System Models Climate Dynamics 18 p 579-586
dc.relation/*ref*/Farber, D (2007) Climate Models A User’s Guide UC Berkeley Public Law Research Paper No. 1030607
dc.relation/*ref*/Pope, V (2007) Models “Key to Climate Forecasts” BBC News 2 Feb 07 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6320515.stm
dc.relation/*ref*/Betts, A (2009) Land-Surface-Atmosphere Coupling in Observations and Models Journal of Advanced Modelling of Earth System Vol 1 (4) http://james.agu.org/index.php/ JAMES/article/view/v1n4/v1n4HTML
dc.sourceJournal of Technology; Vol 13 No 1 (2014): Tecnología para hábitos y estilos de vida sostenibles; 28-38en-US
dc.sourceRevista de Tecnología; ##issue.vol## 13 ##issue.no## 1 (2014): Tecnología para hábitos y estilos de vida sostenibles; 28-38es-AR
dc.sourceRevista de Tecnología; Vol. 13 Núm. 1 (2014): Tecnología para hábitos y estilos de vida sostenibles; 28-38es-ES
dc.source1692-1399
dc.titleA Critical Evaluation of Post-Normal Science's role in Climate Change Modelling and Political Decision-Makingen-US
dc.titleA Critical Evaluation of Post-Normal Science's role in Climate Change Modelling and Political Decision-Makinges-AR
dc.titleA Critical Evaluation of Post-Normal Science's role in Climate Change Modelling and Political Decision-Makinges-ES
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion


Ficheros en el ítem

FicherosTamañoFormatoVer

No hay ficheros asociados a este ítem.

Este ítem aparece en la(s) siguiente(s) colección(ones)

Mostrar el registro sencillo del ítem